ENROLLMENT:
Now you see it, now you don't!



GREAT PARKING LOT
Front view of the new Portland Middle School/High School. (PATRICK RAYCRAFT / HARTFORD COURANT / March 22, 2008)

Faulty School Projections Prove Costly To Taxpayers
By ARIELLE LEVIN BECKER | Courant Staff Writer
July 25, 2008

Portland's combination middle-high school was built big — so big that the district is considering renting out space in the building.

Based in part on the town's projections that the school's population would balloon to 1,070 by 2008, state taxpayers contributed $18.9 million to the $39 million building project.

But those projections were off, and the school has never enrolled more than 600 students. Because of that, the state Department of Education, which doles out construction money, asked for $4.6 million of the funding back last year.

Portland taxpayers avoided paying that bill, however. The state legislature passed a bill earlier this year allowing the town to keep the money.

Portland's case is an extreme example, but it isn't unique. When school districts overbuild, taxpayers get stuck with the tab.

Faulty enrollment projections led the state to overpay three districts for construction projects audited over the last two years. The state Department of Education initially sought money back. But in each case, state officials let the districts off the hook, leaving state taxpayers to pick up the tab of more than $6 million.

In other cases, school districts have sought state money for construction projects using enrollment projection methods that violate state law, according to a state auditor's report released last month. By potentially overestimating student enrollment, the auditor warned, districts could build schools that are larger than necessary — at a greater cost to build and operate — to state and local taxpayers than might otherwise be required.

Oops

The flawed projections happened for various reasons. Some districts projected enrollment for the entire school system rather than just the school, as state law requires. Others used 10-year projections, even though state law calls for state funding to be calculated using projections extending only eight years.Not every instance of inappropriate projections led to enrollment disparities big enough for the state to seek money back, but it did in West Hartford, New Haven and Portland.

West Hartford used a 10-year projection to estimate student enrollment for an expansion and renovation project at Conard High School, according to a state Department of Education audit. The figure overestimated enrollment by 80 students, leading the audit to recommend that West Hartford repay some of the money.

New Haven, meanwhile, didn't use any standard enrollment projection method when applying for funding for The Sound School, a $28 million aquaculture magnet school built entirely with state money.

Officials there decided how big they wanted the school to be, then determined how many students the space would accommodate, the Department of Education audit said. A 1994 proposal called for a 30,800-square-foot school for 185 students. By the time the school was built, the proposal had ballooned to a 68,600-square-foot school for 360 students.

But the school never enrolled more than 319 students in the projection's eight-year time frame, and a state Department of Education audit suggested that New Haven be docked $1.7 million.

In Portland's case, officials applying for state funding in 2001 initially estimated that student enrollment would peak at 780 within eight years, then changed the figure to 1,070 three months later.

State and Portland officials offer different explanations for how the figure was reached and who was responsible for it. School board Chairman Chris Hetrick said the state Department of Education recommended the change, which reflected estimates using housing starts. State Department of Education spokesman Tom Murphy said that's not the case.

Regardless, the school was built for nearly twice as many students as now use it. Some of the space has been used for special education, and officials have considered opening space in the school for outside educational groups to use for a fee.

Hetrick said the state should have stopped the project before construction if the figures were off, rather than letting it go forward and checking the numbers only after the school was built. But Murphy said it was the district's responsibility to use accurate figures.

The department audited the project after it was completed and recommended that Portland repay the state and taxpayers $4.6 million.

Off the Hook

That didn't happen.

In fact, the Portland, Conard and Sound school projects had one thing in common: When the districts were faced with repaying money the state said they overspent, state officials bailed them out.

In New Haven's case, state Education Commissioner Mark K. McQuillan let the city keep the money, citing the unique agriculture and aquaculture programs of the school, a regional magnet that can enroll students from outside New Haven.

West Hartford and Portland were saved by state lawmakers, who tacked amendments onto legislation that essentially forgave the money.

During the 2007 legislative session, West Hartford's potential debt to the state was washed away by a bill that allowed the Conard project to be funded based on a 10-year projection, in spite of a state law requiring eight-year-projections.

In this year's legislative session, meanwhile, as lawmakers grappled with a fiscal situation so tight that it had trouble finding $2.1 million to open a planned charter school in Hartford, Portland taxpayers got some relief. An amendment added to a bill absolved the town of repaying the $4.6 million the Department of Education said Portland was overpaid.

State Rep. James O'Rourke, who represents Portland and helped secure the money, said having to repay more than $4 million would have been devastating to the local budget and tax rate.

"It's a huge amount of money to the town," he said.

O'Rourke called the situation rare but justified. He noted that both the superintendent of schools and first selectwoman have taken office since the building project and were not responsible for the inaccurate enrollment figures. He also said the state Department of Education should monitor enrollment projections before approving funding for a construction project, rather than waiting for an audit once the school has been built, as the department's policy had been.

"You don't want school boards and superintendents to think they can just go out and do whatever they want," he said. "But I did believe that this was done in good faith, from what I could tell."

State Rep. Andrew M. Fleischmann, co-chairman of the education committee, said lawmakers determined that it made sense to help Portland because the school had already been built and the cost of repaying the money would have been a major problem for the town.

"It's a small town that was in a unique situation," he said. "It was pretty clear that they did not have the dollars to pay back."

Fleischmann, of West Hartford, said the Conard project represented a similar situation, where repaying money to the state would have posed a serious hardship to the town.

Fleischmann said towns and cities must be careful about making accurate enrollment projections and following proper procedures. But in cases when problems arise, he said, lawmakers can determine if exceptions are warranted.

"This notion of the legislature making exceptions, it's been going on as long as there's been a legislature," he said.

More Widespread

Even if relatively few school projects required infusions of cash, problematic enrollment projections may be more widespread, according to a state auditor's report.

The auditor found that at least half the school districts examined used inappropriate enrollment projection methods. Of 20 projects in 10 districts, five districts — Bridgeport, Colchester, Manchester, New Haven and Stafford — submitted enrollment numbers that reflected the entire school system, rather than specific schools, which the auditor said did not comply with the law.

Two others, Stamford and Bristol, failed to submit enough documentation to the auditor to determine how they reached their enrollment figures, according to the auditor's report.

Only three of the districts — Hartford, Groton and Middletown — appeared to be using enrollment projection figures that followed the law, state auditor Robert G. Jaekle said.

Such conflicts may be avoided in the future. In May, the state Department of Education stepped up its oversight on construction projects. School districts are now required to show documentation of eight-year enrollment projections when they submit grant applications, with proof that the projection was "the result of a bona fide projection process and subject to public review," David R. Wedge, the department's chief of school facilities, wrote in a memo to school officials.

The state audit urged the department to establish a clear set of guidelines for school districts and to review data districts submit before approving applications, rather than at the end of the projects.

"We find that's a little late in the game," Jaekle said. "The buildings have already been built."
 
School Enrollment Projections
As distributed at the July 18, 2000 SELECT COMMITTEE...meeting by Dr. Shaner
Dr. Prowda's cover letter has been copied verbatim.  His projections have been summarized by "AboutWeston"...please look for them below.
STATE OF CONNECTICUT
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

October 28, 1999
 

Dr. Janet P. Shaner
Superintendent
Weston Public Schools
135 School Road
Weston, CT 06883-1698
 

Dear Dr. Shaner:

Enclosed are my projections of Weston enrollment through the year 2010, a graph of that projection, graphs of selected demographics, and a graph of the accuracy of past enrollment projections.  The numbers for the projection come from fall enrollments provided by you to the Department on ED025, The Pupil Data Report and starting in the fall of 1994 on ED-006, Racial Survey/Pupil Census Report.  Births through 1998 are from the records of the State Department of Public Health.  The 1998 births are provisional and are subject to change.  I estimated 1999 births from the mid-vear data provided bv your town clerk.  Births in 2000 through 2005 are based upon my expected growth in births in the towns of your Education Reference Group.  The housing figures are the permit authorized construction data of the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development.  The labor force data are from the Connecticut Labor Department.  The home sale data are from the Commercial Record published by the Warren Group.

I based this projecton on modified cohort survival methodology.  Change coefficients are the numbers that determine year-to-year growth through the grades.  I used a five-year average with the recent years weighted more than the earlier years to calculate these coefficients.  Based on the information that you provided, I assumed that 90 percent of kindergarteners would enter school in the year of their 5th birthday and 10 percent would delay entry for one year.  I also adjusted the kindergarten change coefficient from a weighted five year average (1.744) to the nine year median (1.711) over a period of five years.

In my work I have found this methodology to provide estimates that are sufficiently accurate for intermediate-range policy planning and for applying for a school construction grant.  My last (November 6, 1998) projection of October 1999 enrollment was 20 students, or 0.9 percent per year, above the actual October 1 count. Six years ago, the State estimated that Weston would have 2099 students enrolled this year.  That projection had a cumulative error rate of 7.2 percent, or 1.2 percent per year.

Weston can expect significant enrollment growth in the upcoming years if current patterns hold.  Next year, I expect enrollment in Grades PK-3 will be 20 more than today's count of 875. I expect the growth to continue through 2003, when enrollment will peak at about 930 youngsters.  By the end of the projection period, I anticipate that enrollment in these grades will be around 850.  I anticipate that next year's enrollment in Grades 4-8 will be about 110 more than the fall 1999 count of 914.  Enrollment in Weston Middle School should approach 1280 students in the fail of 2008 and then decline.  High School enrollment should increase throughout most of the projection period.  Next year expect about 30 students more than this year.  Weston High should have about 970 students enrolled by the fall of 2009.  I would feel more comfortable with this projected growth if the demographics were more supportive.

Unless I am notified to the contrary, the enrollment for 2004-2005 will be reported on the November 2000 District Strategic School Profile.  If I can provide any further assistance, do not hesitate to call me at (860) 566-7585.

Sincerely,
Peter M. Prowda, Ph.D.,
Education Consultant
 
 
 

Box 2219             Hartford, Connecticut 06145
An Equal Opportuniy Employer


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY (ACCORDING TO "ABOUT WESTON"):

These numbers for student enrollment, from the attachments to Dr. Prowda's letter, will be organized in the following fashion--total enrollment (over the past decade), enrollment by each of three schools in that time plus "pre-K" and in addition, a summary of "persistence history" along with the projected enrollments.

Total Enrollment Over the Last Decade (1990-91 to 1999-00)

At the beginning, there were 1449 student, and at the end 2263--a 57% increase.  Pre-K increased four times over (5 students to 20);  elementary showed a 79% increase;  grades 4-8 a 69% increase;  high school increased 13%.

Projected For the Next Decade (2000-01 to 2010-11)

At the beginning, there will be 2425 students and at the end, 3055--a 26% increase.  Pre-K is projected to remain constant;  pre-K to grade 3 should remain fairly constant (-5%--a slight decrease);  grades 4-8, on the other hand will increase (as students "get promoted" through the projection's methodology) by 19%;  Weston High School will grow the most--88%--if projections and the "change coefficients" are accurate.

Assumptions Used:

Most of these relate to what other towns in our educational reference group do--an assumption that is always made. The MIGRATION RATE is one that is different for Weston, perhaps, if only because it relates to land use (only one zone and that one 2 acre residential) and housing patterns.  Also, in the past, Weston has been more vulnerable to corporate moves out of the southwestern region than other communities--if only because a change of a few hundred households departing for employment elsewhere can mean a sea change in enrollments until the real estate market demand catches up with extra supply.

"Persistence" History

Persitence history is based upon "promotion" of students to the next grade, along with an increase factor based upon MIGRATION assumptions, which shows more student advancing than were in Weston the previous school year.  NOTE:  based upon the history of the previous ten years, a MIGRATION FACTOR for school population is developed.

Over the past decade, in four of the years, this was a negative number, and in six, it was positive.  Particularly, the past four years were IN-MIGRATION leaders, and at the beginning of the decade, the first four years showed three of the four as declining --OUT-MIGRATION.

It is for this reason--the unpredictability of MIGRATION--that all who try to project population always add caveates, as  does Dr. Prowda.  As noted above, he says:  "I would feel more comfortable with this projected growth if the demographics were more supportive."

LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION'S WORK

Attached to Dr. Prowda's work are projected enrollments of the local Board of Education.  These are for a different ten year period--1995 to 2005.  No doubt, some of the State's factors (developed for our ERG--"education reference group" of similar towns) can be "tweaked" to get estimates and projections closer to the actual numbers of students who show up on October 1 each year (official date student enrollment counted).

The factors that are more subject to fluctuation, besides "estimated student  migration" might be:
 

As growth slows in "net change..." this means that zoning capacity is being reached.  "Home sales" continuing apace (as it has) in the face of the previous factor's conclusion means that growth is being absorbed through turnover--or outmigration of the older sectors of the general population (just my guess).